There is a strong positive correlation between iPhone prices and ₹/$ equation.  iPhone launch price has changed at an annual rate of 7.6% since 3^rd generation of the premium smartphone while dollar-rupee value changed 5.2% annually during the period.

Gurugram / Srinagar – Apple will be announcing its launch of 2025 iPhone smartphone on Tuesday September 9. iPhone launch is one of the most sought after smartphone launches of the year that gets attention across the world.

An analysis of iPhones launch prices in India in relation to the US$ versus INR (₹) exchange value suggests a strong positive correlation between the two. This trend is likely to continue even though this time Apple will be introducing Made in India iPhone at the time of launch.  Earlier, Apple would import the latest generation of iPhones and later start manufacturing them in India.

While Apple will not import CBUs or Completely Built Units, the components still require to be imported like other smartphone OEMs.  This is where the dollar-rupee exchange rate has a bearing on the manufacturing cost and plays a factor in determining the cost of an iPhone.

Projecting the price of upcoming iPhone 17 series, we estimate the base model to start from ₹86,000 if Apple continues to increase the price on the existing annual average rate.  However, there has been a 5% depreciation in average exchange value of Indian rupee versus US$ in 2025 over last year, which Apple might have to factor in increasing the launch price beyond ₹86,000.

Over these years, the launch price of base model of iPhone has more than doubled up from ₹31,000 to ₹79,900.  For the same period, the 1USD=₹ has also showed similar increase from ₹43.5 to ₹83.7 as of 2024.

The annual average launch price of iPhone has gone up by 7.6% while the ₹/$ equation has changed 5.2% with the rupee weakening over these years.  Factoring the rupee-dollar fluctuation, the absolute average annual increase in iPhone prices over these years has been a modest 2.4%.  While Apple remains one of the most valued, profitable and cash rich companies across the world, it has not significantly increased the prices taking undue advantage of its strong brand pull and premium positioning over these years.

At the same, considering the unique experience iPhones deliver, innovations it has carried over these years, while the absolute price has doubled, the adjusted price increase is negligible which can be seen as one of the reasons why people have started feeling iPhone accessible and worth every dollar spent on it.

iPhone still remains and will continue to remain a flagship premium smartphone which may never become a mass phone in India at least in the visible future. At Techarc we have already estimated that once iPhone shipments hit 15 million mark in India, it will see a flattened market for next 3-5 years after which it will see the next cycle of growth. In all optimistic and best case scenario for Apple in India, iPhone could hit a maximum 12-15% of market by volume, which is not a small achievement by any means. From mere 1-1.5% market share reaching this level would be a phenomenal growth for iPhone in India.  Considering the macro-economic conditions of India, we could be seeing iPhone hitting this plateau in sales by 2030-33, after which it will have to wait another 3-5 years for the next cycle of growth in volume sales.